Gary Shilling sees the U.S. economy deteriorating faster than most economists think. All at once, storm clouds are gathering over the world economy.

Source: Market Watch, photo courtesy of Gary Shilling

The International Monetary Fund has cut its estimates for global growth in 2019, citing concerns about weakness in Europe. China just had its slowest GDP growth since 1990, and President Xi Jinping reportedly has held secret meetings warning Communist Party leaders to prepare for “black swan” events that could derail China’s economy.

In the U.S., the still-unresolved tariff war with China and the stalemated government shutdown may be having a bigger impact on the economy than many anticipated. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, told Politico’s Ben White that when the ripple effects of these big events are factored in, first-quarter U.S. GDP growth could drop to zero.

Still, economists overwhelmingly expect slower growth this year but no recession. More than half of those surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in January saw recession coming by 2020.

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