Global supply chain breakdown: A self-inflicted crisis
As 2021 draws closer to an end, it’s a good time to look back at all the remarkable shifts we’ve witnessed over the last year, on an economic, political and social level, given that most of them are set to persist and come to define the key investment themes of 2022 and beyond.
A lot of those drivers are likely to stem from important geopolitical developments, despite the sparse mainstream media coverage these events have received.
In this issue of the Quarterly Digger, we decided to delve into some of the most significant geopolitical risks that investors should take into account. Also, as winter is now upon us and as covid is once again at the forefront of many investors’ minds, it is interesting to compare the current state of the economy and the pandemic-related restrictions with all the aggressively optimistic forecasts that political leaders, central bankers and institutional figures were confidently promoting just a year ago. The roaring economic recovery has yet to materialize, at least for the vast majority of the population. Neither did all the promises that once the vaccines were rolled out we’d all go back to “business as usual”, nor the central bankers’ fervent assurances that inflation is only “transitory”. What we’re seeing instead is an unprecedented wave of material and energy shortages, supply chain disruptions, and skyrocketing consumer prices, a trend that we’ll examine as well this quarter.
Overall, while the year ahead could prove to be a challenging one for the markets and for the real economy, it certainly looks promising for precious metals investors.