Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2022
At the start of each year, many sit on the edge of their seats, anxiously searching for advice on what to expect for the coming year. While we usually share some of our own thoughts at BFI – see BFI Infinity’s “Outlook 2022: A Post Pandemic World is Emerging” this week – we’re always interested in other perspectives and viewpoints. Bloomberg once again doesn’t disappoint as they collected, sorted through, and presented more than 500 investment outlooks for 2022, broken down by the institution that listed them, the asset class, and theme.
We’ve said it many times before that predicting the (especially financial, economic, or investment) future for the months or years ahead certainly isn’t easy. The infamous “crystal ball” always comes to mind: as we like to say, no one has that crystal ball. At the end of the year, it’s hard to say who, if anyone, has a sterling forecasting record, as the general public tends to forget those that were wrong and give perhaps too much credit to those that were right. Ultimately, it’s a guessing game.
Nonetheless, it doesn’t stop us from seeking out and enjoying others’ predictions and outlook, especially when it comes to investing. We found Bloomberg’s article from January 3, 2022, titled Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2022, interesting if nothing else for how broad its scope was. They have taken information from 46 financial institutions, consisting of 23 different themes and 10 different asset classes, to present over 500 different investment outlooks.
Bloomberg writes, “One topic dominates: ‘Inflation’ is the most frequently cited term in our selected calls, appearing 224 times. Unsurprisingly, it’s often paired with a word like ‘higher’ or ‘rising.’ AXA Investment Managers describes it as ‘the key concern’ for 2022, and surging prices hang over nearly every scenario envisaged by the Wall Street prognosticators.
“While firms are divided over how transitory inflation will ultimately prove—with many expecting it to ease alongside supply chain pressures—that very uncertainty feeds a consensus that one of the biggest risks this year will be monetary policy missteps. For Fidelity, ‘the margin for error will be fine, making the probability of policy mistakes high’.”
Finally, we felt the following graph was a fun way of looking ahead at 2022. This comes from the Visual Capitalist and their January 6, 2022 article, Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2022. They used the same Bloomberg article to compile their bingo card, but also apparently looked into hundreds of other sources as well. well.
Visual Capitalist, January 6, 2022 – Collaborators RESEARCH Nick Routley, Carmen Ang, and Dorothy Neufeld, DESIGN Nick Routley